Tax Revenue: Unlikely to meet tax revenue target in 5 years, government tells finance panel

NEW DELHI: The government told the 15th Finance Commission (FFC) in June that gross tax revenue (GTR) growth over the next five years could be much less than that estimated in the budget.

For instance, it had earlier estimated GTR for 2019-20 to be Rs 25.52 lakh crore but based on provisional accounts for 2018-19, it may be only Rs 23.61 lakh crore. It calculated that the shortfall could range between Rs 2.16 lakh crore in 2020-21 to Rs 3.70 lakh crore in 2024-25, documents ET has reviewed show. Altogether, the GTR over the next five years could be about Rs 15 lakh crore less than the original estimate given to the FFC.

The original numbers were based on estimates from the interim budget. The finance ministry reduced its estimates in the July budget but they were still much higher (see table) than those given to the FFC in the reassessment. Separately, the ministry anticipated that it would lose another Rs 1.45 lakh crore in revenue after it cut corporation tax in September to prod sluggish growth.

Questions sent to the cabinet secretary and finance ministry did not elicit any response. An FFC spokesperson said the commission could not comment as its report was not yet placed before parliament.

The government also expected food, fertiliser and petroleum subsidies’ bill to shoot up in 2020-21. It anticipates petroleum subsidy to more than treble (to Rs 90,000 crore) and fertiliser subsidy to double (to Rs 1.42 lakh crore) in 2020-21 compared to the revised estimates for 2018-19. It also expects food subsidy to go up by about Rs 90,000 crore to Rs 2.61 lakh crore in the same period.

“These estimates need to be tempered with an element of caution,” the government wrote to the FFC. “However, as per the provisional accounts for 2018-19, it can be seen that the actual collection from various taxes is lower than the revised estimates. Based on this recent development, if the base year estimates are reassessed keeping the same growth and buoyancy assumptions as adopted during the presentation of the budget for the year 2019-20, the estimates for the gross tax revenue would get reduced ranging from Rs 2.16 lakh crore in 2020-21 to Rs 3.70 lakh crore in 2024-25,’’ it said.