No, the Grid won’t collapse at 9 pm. Keep calm and stay safe

With India planning to go dark for nine minutes on Sunday night at 9 pm on call from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, there have been talks of a potential nation grid collapse due to sudden fall in demand. Let me tell you, the fears are grossly exaggerated.

The big question: Will the grid collapse on Sunday night and lead to long hours of load shedding?

The clear answer is “NO”. India has a baseload power demand of roughly 160 gigawatts (GW), that is 160,000 megawatts (MW). Since the nationwide lockdown, electricity demand has already come down by 30% from its peak. The gas-fired plants and hydel-power facilities can be switched off within minutes, and because of demand drop (due to the lockdown) even the thermal-power plants have cut back production already. The Power System Operation Corporation (POSOCO), which is the national load-despatch centre and operates the national electricity grid, uses advanced technology of automatic relays and capacitors that can easily handle the situation.

Concern #1: Everyone will switch off at 9 pm and the grid will go haywire.

If the electricity is switched off altogether, all power stations can go on high frequency, as power demand drops significantly and there is a possibility of grid tripping. Hence, the state despatch-loading centres (SDLCs) ensure that the frequency of power that runs in the power-grid lines should be between 48.5 hertz and 51.5 hertz, according to CERC regulations. The government has already advised SDLCs to keep the national-grid frequency on the lower side of the IEGC (Indian Electricity Grid Code) band i.e 49.5 Hz from 8:30 pm onwards in view of anticipated frequency rise due to demand reduction.

Concern #2: What measures has the power industry taken to tackle any sudden developments at 9 pm tonight?

Tonight, it is not a demand-side situation. The danger is of supply side — surging and disrupting the frequency when Indians switch off lights all at once at 9 pm.

To address the supply side, we need to understand various sources of electricity. India gets power from different sources — thermal, hydro, gas, solar, and wind. Solar doesn’t generate at night. Wind energy is continuous and can’t be stopped. But it is possible to completely shut down a hydro or a gas plant. It is easy to switch off hydro- and gas-based plants in a few minutes and restart in a few minutes. But thermal power cannot be managed with such ease. It takes at least eight-nine hours for switching off plants and similar time to restart.

Since thermal plants can’t be shut down, the capacity utilisation will be kept at the lowest tonight. Power-generation companies have already ramped up hydro- and gas-based plants for a day to manage the situation. This will easily control the frequency and maintain balance of the grid.

Concern #3: Will a sudden increase in voltage damage my electrical appliances?

Power transmission is a bulk movement of electrical energy from a generating site, such as a power plant, to an electrical substation. The interconnected lines, which facilitate this movement, are known as a transmission network. This is distinct from the local wiring between high-voltage substations and customers. The transformers reduce the voltages significantly that reach homes. Hence, there will be no abrupt fluctuations in voltage.

Concern #4: The demand reduction will be huge and in excess of 12 GW.

It is now estimated that total domestic lighting-load reduction at an all-India level will be to the tune of 12 GW-13 GW. Unlike normal operation, this reduction in load would happen in two-four minutes before 9 pm on Sunday and recover nine minutes later in two-four minutes.

Due to a nationwide lockdown, electricity demand has already come down 30% from its peak and subsequently all the thermal-electricity plants are running at 65% plant load factor (PLF). The demand reduction of 13 GW is on a higher side, as most people won’t switch off fans, air conditioners, or refrigerators. Also, street lights and those in other public places will be on. Moreover, there will be some percentage of people who will keep the lights on along with other appliances. Hence, it could be a reduction of only seven-eight GW.

Concern #5: Does India have experience in handling such planned power shutdowns?

A recent example of major shifts in power demand over a short timeframe was visible on the day of the Janta Curfew on March 22, when national power demand fell to 135 GW, down 26 GW from the 161 GW on the previous day. That’s a difference of 26,000 MW handled successfully over a 24-hour period.

Earlier, during the 2012 Northern India blackout, the biggest in the world, there was a sudden surge in demand that led to tripping and more than 600 million people went without electricity for two days. This was the high-demand situation for blackout. But the Indian power sector has learnt from that and is much better prepared now.

Perhaps, the overflow of information on social media has everyone worrying too much. Remember that every year, on March 28, the world celebrates the Earth Hour for one hour, when people switch off their lights for an hour to support a cause for nature.

Here we are, worried about nine minutes.