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Italy v Germany
Italy impressed in their Nations League group, winning four of their first five games – including a 3-1 victory against France in Paris – but they had to settle for second place after losing the return fixture to France in Milan in November. Luciano Spalletti’s side missed out on top spot on goal difference and the quarter-final draw has not been kind to them. Their record against Germany is not good – they’ve failed to beat them in their last six attempts. The last time the teams met, in 2022, Germany ran out convincing 5-2 winners.
Italy will be without the influential wing-back Federico Dimarco, who sustained an injury while playing for Inter against Napoli earlier this month. Destiny Udogie may therefore start on the left, though there is also the possibility that Alessandro Bastoni is pushed forward with Alessandro Buongiorno coming into the three-man backline. Nicolò Barella and Giacomo Raspadori are battling to support Mateo Retegui on the frontline. The Atalanta striker has been sensational this season, scoring 22 goals in 27 games in Serie A. Moise Kean, who is second in the Serie A scoring charts this season, is another option for Italy.
Germany dominated their group, winning all six games while scoring 18 goals and conceding just four. They have their injury problems though. Kai Havertz and Florian Wirtz are unavailable for Julian Nagelsmann, so Leroy Sané and Deniz Undav may start. The Germany head coach also has a couple of selection headaches at the back, with Oliver Baumann and Alexander Nübel competing for the goalkeeper spot given that Marc-André ter Stegen is out for the season. Nico Schlotterbeck and Jonathan Tah are also options for Nagelsmann as Antonio Rüdiger’s centre-back partner. Prediction: Germany to progress
Denmark v Portugal
Denmark failed to win any of their last four group games and limped into the quarter-finals. They swapped managers for the final two games, with Brian Riemer taking over the reins. The former Brentford assistant has moved his side from a three-man backline to a 4-3-3 formation.
Denmark will be without the midfielder Pierre-Emile Højbjerg for the visit of Portugal. The Marseille man has proved his importance time and time again for the national team, and they will miss his energy in the middle of the park. Kasper Dolberg, Matt O’Riley and Alexander Bah are also missing, though Mika Biereth and Conrad Harder provide sufficient cover for the former on the frontline. Biereth has been in sensational form this year, scoring 11 goals in nine games for new club Monaco.
While Denmark have lost a key midfielder, Portugal bring one back to the fold. Bruno Fernandes missed Portugal’s final group game due to a ban but the Manchester United captain is expected to start for Roberto Martínez’s side. The in-form Paris Saint-Germain pair Vitinha and João Neves may join Fernandes in the middle of the park, while Cristiano Ronaldo, despite his advancing years, is set to lead the charge. Prediction: Portugal to progress
Croatia v France
Croatia have only won one of their 10 matches against France and they do not look likely to improve that record this weekend. They hardly covered themselves in glory in their group, winning just two of their six games – with both wins coming at home and by a single goal. Indeed, they go into this tie against France on a three-match winless run, having drawn with Poland and Portugal either side of a defeat to Scotland. They will be without the Real Sociedad midfielder Luka Sucic. Having excelled from the right for PSV, Ivan Perisic may be pushed forward to provide additional attacking support for Andrej Kramaric, who could lead the charge in the absence of youngster Igor Matanovic.
While central midfield options are few and far between for Zlatko Dalic, the France manager Didier Deschamps is spoiled for choice. Eduardo Camavinga has returned from a ban and is in line to start, with Aurélien Tchouaméni, Manu Koné, Mattéo Guendouzi and Adrien Rabiot all options to partner the 22-year-old. Kylian Mbappé is also back in the France squad and could be supported by Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola in a terrifying frontline.
The only good news for Croatia is that they came out on top the last time the teams met, winning 1-0 in 2022, but Dalic’s side will do well to contain this France attack. Prediction: France to progress
The Netherlands v Spain
The Netherlands finished second in their group and were handed a tough quarter-final against the defending champions Spain. The Oranje only lost one of their six group matches, but they won only two of their six games, beating group minnows Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Hungary.
Ronald Koeman is unable to call upon the injured pair Denzel Dumfries and Nathan Aké for the double header against Spain, which may see Jurriën Timber and Jorrel Hato feature from the outset. Jeremie Frimpong is also an option to replace Dumfries at right-back.
In the Spain camp, the Barcelona pair Marc Casadó and Iñigo Martínez are both missing for Luis de la Fuente owing to injury, with the Bournemouth youngster Dean Huijsen called up to replace the latter. It is another teenage defender that should partner Robin Le Normand at the heart of the defence, with Pau Cubarsí set to start. Otherwise, De la Fuente is unlikely to spring any major changes, with Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams expected to flank the captain Álvaro Morata.
As the holders of the Nations League and the European Championship, Spain have to be favourites. They have won 14 of their last 15 games and will fancy their chances of becoming the first team to win the Nations League twice – even without the Ballon d’Or winner, Rodri. That said, the last time these teams met in a competitive fixture, at the World Cup in 2014, Spain were pre-match favourites but the Netherlands thrashed them 5-1. Prediction: Spain to progress
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