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Cigarette volume growth, Ebit margin at FMCG business, any recovery in paper business and the outlook on agri and hotel businesses will be keenly watched.
The company will announce its quarterly results on January 31.
Emkay Global sees ITC reporting 24.3 per cent YoY rise in profit at Rs 3,988.70 crore. The brokerage sees sales rising 8.6 per cent to Rs 12,188 crore from Rs 11,227 crore in the year-ago period. Ebitda margin is seen improving to 39.50 per cent from 38.4 per cent in the September quarter and 38.5 per cent in the year-ago quarter.
“We estimate cigarette volumes and sales growth of 3 per cent and 6 per cent with Ebit growth of 8 per cent. The FMCG segment may grow 6 per cent, with EBIT improving 43 per cent. We estimate other divisions to record sales and Ebit growth of 12 per cent,” Emkay said.
IIFL Securities forecasts cigarette volume growth at 3.5 per cent, higher than 2.5 per cent reported in the previous quarter. The broking house projects sales growth at 6 per cent, similar to the last two quarters.
“Cigarette Ebit growth would accelerate to 9 per cent, as the proportion of higher-cost leaf tobacco reduces, and that of indigenised capsule-filters increases. At an overall level, we forecast sales, Ebitda and PBT growth at 8 per cent, 10.9 per cent and 8.6 per cent, respectively. Ebitda growth is boosted by a favourable base in the FMCG and hotel segments. PAT growth at 20.7 per cent would be boosted by corporate tax cut,” it said.
The non-cigarette businesses may grow 8.5 per cent, said HDFC Institutional Equities. This would be against 12 per cent growth in the September quarter and 17 per cent growth in the year-ago period. FMCG, hotel, agri and paper businesses are seen registering sales growth of 6 per cent, 15 per cent, 10 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively.
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